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RE: Moving forward on Site-Local and Local Addressing

> Actually, I believe we do not have a birthday paradox issue in this case.
> The birthday paradox would exist only if ALL 1.2 million self-drawn prefixes would see each other.
> However, in our scenario, the merging of two enterprises, only the two local prefixes may collide with each other.
> They can not collide with the other 1.2 million or any other number of prefixes out there.
> Thus, the probability remains 2^-40.

The individual probability of two domains colliding is x=2^-40, but the global result on the Internet is a somewhat larger. If we have N domains, and each peers with M other domains, then the probability of absence of collision for each domain is:
          p1 = (1-x)^M
The probability that no collision will be observed in the whole Internet is
          p2 = (1-x)^MN
I believe we can easily find a value of N (say 10 billion) and M (say 100) where p2 is close to 1, i.e. some poor guy somewhere is going to get stuck.
Which means that we should build an escape hatch: easy renumbering & number registration come to mind.
-- Christian Huitema

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