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Re: Moving forward on Site-Local and Local Addressing



10 billion organizations, each merging with 100 other, distinct organizations?

When Mathematicians talk about "0 probability events", I think that's what they mean... ;-)

Surely, even taken the 2^-40 probability, some poor guy can get stuck - I agree with that.
(I can imagine him thinking, "I should not have ignored this MD5 part...")

Regards,

-- Nir Arad

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Christian Huitema" <huitema@windows.microsoft.com>
To: "Nir Arad" <nir.arad@il.marvell.com>; <ipng@sunroof.eng.sun.com>
Sent: Sunday, August 10, 2003 8:37 PM
Subject: RE: Moving forward on Site-Local and Local Addressing


> > Actually, I believe we do not have a birthday paradox issue in this case.
> > The birthday paradox would exist only if ALL 1.2 million self-drawn prefixes would see each other.
> > However, in our scenario, the merging of two enterprises, only the two local prefixes may collide with each other.
> > They can not collide with the other 1.2 million or any other number of prefixes out there.
> > Thus, the probability remains 2^-40.
>
> The individual probability of two domains colliding is x=2^-40, but the global result on the Internet is a somewhat
larger. If we have N domains, and each peers with M other domains, then the probability of absence of collision for each
domain is:
>           p1 = (1-x)^M
> The probability that no collision will be observed in the whole Internet is
>           p2 = (1-x)^MN
> I believe we can easily find a value of N (say 10 billion) and M (say 100) where p2 is close to 1, i.e. some poor guy
somewhere is going to get stuck.
>
> Which means that we should build an escape hatch: easy renumbering & number registration come to mind.
>
> -- Christian Huitema
>
>
>
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