IPv6 adoption behavior

[Fred Baker <fred@xxxxxxxxx>]

At 09:48 AM 10/14/2003, Michel Py wrote:
>In my wildest dreams, 10 years at least; possibly 20 depending on how good 
>the projections in terms of IPv4 exhaustion are.

Frankly, it's not about IPv4 exhaustion, it is about market adoption of IPv6.

IPv4 address exhaustion will never occur. As we approach 100% allocation 
(being now a tad over 60% allocation), the level of administrative pushback 
on a new allocation requests will increase, until they get to a point where 
ISPs will find it simpler and more cost-effective to purchase allocations 
from each other. A market will develop, and the price of an allocation will 
change as demand approaches supply. Eventually, the price of purchasing an 
allocation from another ISP will be perceived and used as a competitive 
weapon, and the market will become a very difficult one. But supply will 
never become zero. It will simply become expensive.

That is economics 101.

We will, at the same time, go through an S curve in IPv6 deployment. We 
currently see a certain level of ISP and Enterprise deployment, and 
sometimes see edge-ISP-edge connectivity, most commonly on research 
networks. At the point where it becomes probable that the only or preferred 
way one can access a peer enterprise with which one has or seeks a business 
relationship is via IPv6, perhaps for some critical application, IPv6 
deployment will start to grow very strongly. As it approaches saturation of 
the current IPv4 Internet, systems which choose IPv6 in preference to IPv4 
will use IPv6 when they can, and IPv4 traffic will start to subside. When 
IPv4 volume becomes too marginal, ISPs will start shutting it down.

The question(s) that raises are "will <pick a point in that game plan> ever 
occur, and if so, when?"

My crystal ball is as cloudy as anyone's. But I would expect that it is all 
a matter of economics. 


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