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RE: IPv6 adoption behavior



Fred,

> Fred Baker wrote:
> Frankly, it's not about IPv4 exhaustion, it is about market
> adoption of IPv6.
> IPv4 address exhaustion will never occur. As we approach 100%
> allocation (being now a tad over 60% allocation), the level
> of administrative pushback on a new allocation requests will
> increase, until they get to a point where ISPs will find it
> simpler and more cost-effective to purchase allocations from
> each other. A market will develop, and the price of an
> allocation will change as demand approaches supply.

And as prices rise we can expect a gray market of IPv4 blocks much worse
than what we see today.

> Eventually, the price of purchasing an allocation from
> another ISP will be perceived and used as a competitive
> weapon, and the market will become a very difficult one.
> But supply will never become zero. It will simply become
> expensive. That is economics 101.

Agree. However, this has an unfortunate side effect: Since money will
differentiate the haves from the haves-not, it is a reasonable
assumption that large organizations such as multinational corporations
and developed countries will actually never run out of IPv4 addresses
because they are and possibly will remain in the top tier that can
afford them.

Why is this unfortunate? Because these large organizations can indeed
delay IPv6 deployment until the last minute.


> At the point where it becomes probable that the only or preferred
> way one can access a peer enterprise with which one has or seeks
> a business relationship is via IPv6

Which unfortunately will likely be delayed for the reasons I mentioned
above.


> As it approaches saturation of the current IPv4 Internet, systems
> which choose IPv6 in preference to IPv4 will use IPv6 when they
> can, and IPv4 traffic will start to subside. When IPv4 volume
> becomes too marginal, ISPs will start shutting it down.

Yep.


> The question(s) that raises are "will <pick a point in that game
> plan> ever occur, and if so, when?"

Indeed.

> My crystal ball is as cloudy as anyone's. But I would expect
> that it is all a matter of economics.

I concur.

Michel.

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