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Re: IPv6 adoption behavior



At 10:52 AM 14/10/2003 -0700, Fred Baker wrote:
>At 09:48 AM 10/14/2003, Michel Py wrote:
>>In my wildest dreams, 10 years at least; possibly 20 depending on how 
>>good the projections in terms of IPv4 exhaustion are.
>
>Frankly, it's not about IPv4 exhaustion, it is about market adoption of IPv6.
>
>IPv4 address exhaustion will never occur. As we approach 100% allocation 
>(being now a tad over 60% allocation), the level of administrative 
>pushback on a new allocation requests will increase, until they get to a 
>point where ISPs will find it simpler and more cost-effective to purchase 
>allocations from each other. A market will develop, and the price of an 
>allocation will change as demand approaches supply. Eventually, the price 
>of purchasing an allocation from another ISP will be perceived and used as 
>a competitive weapon, and the market will become a very difficult one. But 
>supply will never become zero. It will simply become expensive.
>
>That is economics 101.


And is also described in RFC 1744.


>My crystal ball is as cloudy as anyone's. But I would expect that it is 
>all a matter of economics.


Indeed. The only other factor here is that it is not entirely a clean 
substitution,
as NATs provide an alternative product which is an imperfect substitution. 
The extent
to which the market, over the past few years, has tended towards NATs despite
the negative effects in both local and network domains  is quickly
becoming the dominant factor in any economic consideration of this entire
IPv4 / IPv6 area.


   Geoff





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